To reopen or not to reopen, that is the question! North Sea demersal stocks are evaluated each autumn to determine whether information from summer surveys changes the perception of recruitment strength compared to values used in short-term forecasts to provide advice in June. This is done based on the so-called reopening protocol.
This protocol was established by ICES Ad hoc Group on Criteria for Reopening Fisheries Advice (AGCREFA) in 2008. Since then, many benchmarks have been conducted and new assessment models have been introduced—considerably changing the assessment and advice landscape.
This workshop will revisit the AGCREFA reopening protocol and provide guidance on what additional information could be used in the forecasts when they are triggered by the reopening protocol. The workshop has four Terms of Reference (ToR):
- Reconsider the autumn reopening protocol from ICES AGCREFA for North Sea stocks, particularly in relation to methods, settings, and data (i.e. which age groups to consider) used, both for the reopening trigger mechanism and for actual forecast update.
- Consider the use of additional information for reopening that better informs the assumptions for the intermediate year in catch forecasts (e.g., information from the fisheries such as quota uptake, or fishing effort).
- Evaluate the historic performance of the current reopening procedure in delivering improved recruitment estimates for short term forecasts.
- Propose an updated reopening protocol taking into account timelines and data availability.
